I have been fascinated by prediction markets since I have met Sveinung Arnesen, a colleague from the University of Bergen, who introduced me at a summer school to this method. Since then I have applied prediction markets to a wide range of political events often in collaboration with Sveinung or more recently with Alberto López Ortega and Sandra Morgenstern. I apply a real-money prediction market programmed by Kjetil Thuen that makes use of Hanson’s automated market maker. Among others I have applied the prediction market to generate forecasts on the following events:
- Swiss direct democratic votes since 2011 (for live forecasts see the blog 50plus1)
- National elections in Germany (2013, 2021), Spain (2016, 2019), Switzerland (2011, 2019), USA (2020), and regional elections in Switzerland (2015, 2023) and Spain (since 2016)
- Migration flows (2020)
- European politics (2022)
- CO2e-emissions from flight travel at the University of Zurich (since 2022)
- Geopolitics (since 2023)
You can find some of the current forecasts on the project website of PREMIA where, together with Marc Wildi and Carolin Strobl, I am futher developing prediction markets by integrating trading algorithms. The prediction markets have often been covered by media outlets such as the Tagesanzeiger (with whom I conducted a project in 2015) or El Periódico (with whom Alberto cooperated). Also, my forecast on the federal council election in Switzerland has been covered by a couple of regional newspapers such as Tagblatt and the prediction market on flight-related CO2 emissions at University of Zurich received attention in the Handelszeitung. You can find details about the prediction markets in my publications. If you are interested in the prediction market on migration flows you might want to read the evaluation of our pilot project that we have summarized in this working paper. If you want to conduct a prediction market or participate in it please write me an Email: strijbis[at]ipz.uzh.ch.